Features

01

Complete the weeks still arriving

Late reports make the newest weeks look lower than they will end up. An engine fills those weeks in and hands back draws rather than a single number. The uncertainty then travels onward instead of being thrown away at the first step.

02

Trend, intensity and alerts, on the draws

Recent slope and the probability of increase, five-level MEM intensity, and exceedance of a historical baseline each take the completed draws and return them. Reporting uncertainty reaches the trend and the alert instead of stopping at the nowcast.

03

One table at the end

When the analysis is finished, collapse the draws to quantiles. That step is terminal: it yields a tidy csfmt_rts_data_v3 for tables, figures and storage, and nothing analytical runs on a collapsed table.