Features

01

Complete the weeks still arriving

Late reports make the newest weeks look too low. A nowcast engine completes them as Monte-Carlo draws, so the uncertainty travels on.

02

Trend, intensity and alerts, on the draws

The recent slope, five MEM intensity levels and a historical-baseline alert each run on every draw. So the reporting uncertainty reaches the alert.

03

One table at the end

The last step collapses the draws to quantiles, in a tidy csfmt_rts_data_v3 for tables and figures. No analysis runs after it.

04

Store the ensemble

The v4 functions carry one ensemble through every step, and compress it to a table to store.