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Ensemble format and naming grammar

The ensemble of draws, the reporting-triangle input, and the grammar that names their columns.

csfmt_ensemble_v3()
Build a csfmt_ensemble_v3
validate_ensemble()
Check the shape of a csfmt_ensemble_v3
print(<csfmt_ensemble_v3>)
Print a csfmt_ensemble_v3
csfmt_reporting_triangle_v3()
Build a csfmt_reporting_triangle_v3
reporting_triangle_matrix()
Turn a reporting triangle into one count matrix per series
isoyearweek_week_start()
The Monday that starts an ISO week
set_time_series_id()
Add a content-hash series id to a data.table
csfmt_var()
Build a measure column name from its parts
csfmt_parse()
Split a measure column name into its parts
csfmt_interpret()
Split every value column name of a table into its parts
q_label()
Write a probability as a quantile label
q_value()
Read the probability in a quantile label

Nowcast engines

Complete the weeks of a reporting triangle that are still being reported.

nowcast_delay_ecdf_v1()
Nowcast a reporting triangle from the delay pattern of settled weeks
nowcast_passthrough_to_ensemble_v1()
Build an ensemble from a reporting triangle with no nowcast

Ensemble stages

Stages that take an ensemble and return it with new columns, and the collapse to quantiles that ends the pipeline.

ens_add_rate()
Add a rate to an ensemble
short_term_trend()
Estimate the short-term trend of a series
mem_thresholds_v1()
Classify every draw into MEM intensity levels
signal_detection_hlm()
Flag weeks above a historical limit
ens_collapse()
Collapse the draws of an ensemble to quantiles

v4: one ensemble, full or compressed

One ensemble that holds the draws in memory, or a table of percentiles to store, and the steps that take it in either state.

csfmt_ensemble_v4()
Build a csfmt_ensemble_v4
print(<csfmt_ensemble_v4>)
Print a csfmt_ensemble_v4
csfmt_reporting_triangle_v4()
Build a csfmt_reporting_triangle_v4
nowcast_ecdf_v4()
Nowcast a reporting triangle from the delay pattern of settled weeks
nowcast_passthrough_v4()
Build an ensemble from a reporting triangle with no nowcast
ens_add_rate_v4()
Add a rate to a csfmt_ensemble_v4
short_term_trend_v4()
Fit the short-term trend of every draw of a csfmt_ensemble_v4
signal_detection_hlm_v4()
Flag the draws of a csfmt_ensemble_v4 above a historical limit
mem_thresholds_v4()
Classify the draws of a csfmt_ensemble_v4 into MEM intensity levels
ens_compress_v4()
Compress a csfmt_ensemble_v4 into a table to store
as_ensemble_v4()
Rebuild a csfmt_ensemble_v4 from a stored table

Nowcast diagnostics

Replay a method on past dates and score it, and measure how fast counts arrive.

nowcast_censor()
Cut a reporting triangle back to what was known on a past date
nowcast_truth()
The settled total of each reference week
nowcast_backtest()
Replay a nowcast method on past as-of dates
nowcast_score_v1()
Score replayed nowcast quantiles against the settled truth
reporting_completion_v1()
Measure how fast the counts of a reporting triangle arrive
reporting_completion_trend_v1()
Reporting speed by year and by recent month, in one table

Quality control

Check one input feed, and compare two runs of the pipeline.

qc_surveillance_data_v1()
Check that a surveillance feed has data and is up to date
qc_week_over_week_v1()
Compare this week's run with last week's run
compare_results()
Compare two collapsed result sets, column by column

Trend helpers

The rolling-slope kernel, and the trend alarm for a surveillance sts object.

rolling_slope_matrix()
Rolling regression slope down every column of a matrix
short_term_trend_sts_v1()
Short-term trend alarms on a surveillance sts object

Data simulation

Simulate daily counts with known outbreaks and holiday effects.

simulate_baseline_data()
Simulate daily counts with no outbreak
simulate_seasonal_outbreak_data()
Add seasonal outbreaks to simulated daily counts
simulate_spike_outbreak_data()
Add short outbreaks to the end of simulated daily counts
add_holiday_effect()
Multiply simulated counts on public holidays